Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río · Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Peña Deportiva vs Son Cladera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Peña Deportiva and 1.41 for Son Cladera, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Peña Deportiva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peña Deportiva win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peña Deportiva home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Son Cladera away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peña Deportiva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Peña Deportiva and 1.41 for Son Cladera, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Peña Deportiva
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
Son Cladera
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Felanitx · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotlet Molinar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peña Deportiva win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.