Parque Desportivo de Sant´Ana (Penalva do Castelo) · Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Penalva Castelo vs Amarante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Penalva Castelo and 1.68 for Amarante, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Amarante the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Amarante away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amarante to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Penalva Castelo and 1.68 for Amarante, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Penalva Castelo
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 0-4 (L)
- 2018-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Anadia · 1-3 (L)
- 2016-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 0-4 (L)
- 2016-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol · 4-4 (D)
Amarante
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.