Bandaraya Stadium · Referee M. F. Mad Sallih · Analysis updated 02:34 UTC
Penang vs DPMM FC Brunei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Penang and 1.23 for DPMM FC Brunei, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Penang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penang home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DPMM FC Brunei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Penang and 1.23 for DPMM FC Brunei, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Penang
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Selangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan Red Warrior FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Melaka · 2-1 (W)
DPMM FC Brunei
- 2026-10-23T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuching FA · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuala Lumpur FA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuala Lumpur FA · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Terengganu · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · Penang 0-1 DPMM FC Brunei (Super League)
- 2026-05-15T09:00:00.000Z · Penang 2-1 DPMM FC Brunei (Super League)
- 2025-12-23T12:15:00.000Z · Penang 0-2 DPMM FC Brunei (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.