Bandaraya Stadium · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Penang vs Johor Darul Takzim FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Penang and 2.91 for Johor Darul Takzim FC, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Johor Darul Takzim FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Johor Darul Takzim FC win
82.5% probability
Expected goals
0.67 – 2.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penang home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Johor Darul Takzim FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 6% / 12% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.67 goals for Penang and 2.91 for Johor Darul Takzim FC, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
18%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.8%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–48.3%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Penang
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Selangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan Red Warrior FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Melaka · 2-1 (W)
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Johor Darul Takzim FC win, at 82.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.