Bandaraya Stadium · Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Penang vs Kelantan United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Penang and 1.33 for Kelantan United, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Penang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Penang win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penang home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Penang and 1.33 for Kelantan United, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
Penang
- 2026-10-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Selangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan Red Warrior FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Melaka · 2-1 (W)
Kelantan United
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Negeri Sembilan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 1-14 (L)
- 2026-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Selangor · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuala Lumpur FA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Melaka · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Penang win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.