· Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Penapolense vs Jabaquara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Penapolense and 0.67 for Jabaquara, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Penapolense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Penapolense win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jabaquara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penapolense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Penapolense and 0.67 for Jabaquara, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Penapolense
Jabaquara
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AEA · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs EC Lemense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Taquaritinga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Penapolense · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - A4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter de Bebedouro | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 2 | Penapolense | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | São Caetano | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | Grêmio Sãocarlense | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 5 | Barretos | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| 6 | Taquaritinga | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Joseense | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | ECUS | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | EC Lemense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 10 | Comercial | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Tanabi | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Jabaquara | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Vocem | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Colorado Caieiras | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Nacional SP | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | AEA | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -31 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Penapolense win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.