· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Penarol vs Atletico Torque Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Penarol and 1.21 for Atletico Torque, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Penarol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penarol home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penarol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Penarol and 1.21 for Atletico Torque, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Penarol
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Albion FC · 3-1 (W)
Atletico Torque
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Danubio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Nacional · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Penarol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maldonado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | CA River Plate | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.