Penarol vs Club Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Penarol and 0.89 for Club Nacional, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Penarol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Penarol win

51.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Penarol home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Club Nacional away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penarol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Penarol and 0.89 for Club Nacional, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Penarol win52%

Draw26%

Club Nacional win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–112.2%
2–010.3%
2–19.2%
0–09.1%

Recent form

Penarol

2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Boston River · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Danubio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Albion FC · 3-1 (W)

Club Nacional

2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Largo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Progreso · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	31	19	6	6	25	62
2	Deportivo Maldonado	31	17	7	7	22	58
3	Atletico Torque	31	16	6	9	15	54
4	Racing Montevideo	31	14	11	6	11	53
5	Club Nacional	31	16	4	11	9	52
6	Wanderers	31	14	8	9	4	50
7	Liverpool Montevideo	31	13	10	8	12	49
8	Central Espanol	31	10	8	13	-10	38
9	Albion FC	31	10	7	14	-1	37
10	Juventud	31	9	10	12	-4	37
11	Defensor Sporting	31	8	11	12	-8	35
12	Cerro Largo	31	8	9	14	-7	33
13	Cerro	31	9	6	16	-22	33
14	Boston River	31	8	7	16	-13	31
15	Danubio	31	5	14	12	-14	29
16	Progreso	31	8	4	19	-19	28
1	Penarol	68	43	12	13	57	141
2	Club Nacional	68	40	14	14	52	131
3	Deportivo Maldonado	31	17	7	7	22	58
4	Liverpool Montevideo	68	31	21	16	26	114
5	Racing Montevideo	68	28	22	18	12	106
6	Atletico Torque	68	29	16	23	18	103
7	Juventud	68	27	17	24	2	98
8	Defensor Sporting	68	26	18	24	-4	96
9	Boston River	68	22	20	26	-2	86
10	Central Espanol	31	10	8	13	-10	38
11	Cerro Largo	68	20	22	26	-7	82
12	Wanderers	68	20	21	27	-18	81
13	Albion FC	31	10	7	14	-1	37
14	Cerro	68	21	17	30	-31	79
15	Danubio	68	15	27	26	-14	72
16	Progreso	68	18	13	37	-41	67
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	9	16
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	8	15
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	2	11
2	Club Nacional	7	4	1	2	0	13
3	Racing Montevideo	7	2	4	1	1	10
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	6	12
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	0	9
4	Atletico Torque	7	4	0	3	0	12
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	0	9
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	-3	8
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	-4	9
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	-2	6
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	-3	6
7	Progreso	7	2	0	5	-5	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	-5	5
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	-4	4
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	9	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	8	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	10	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	7	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	1	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	6	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	5	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	2	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	2	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	-5	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	-5	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	-11	10
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	-16	10
1	Liverpool Montevideo	9	6	2	1	10	20
2	Atletico Torque	9	6	1	2	9	19
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	9	19
4	Deportivo Maldonado	9	5	2	2	8	17
5	Club Nacional	9	5	2	2	4	17
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Juventud	9	3	5	1	4	14
8	Cerro	9	4	2	3	-2	14
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	1	12
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	-3	12
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Defensor Sporting	9	2	2	5	-7	8
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	-6	7
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	-6	5
15	Central Espanol	9	1	2	6	-11	5
16	Albion FC	9	1	0	8	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Penarol win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.