Sportovni areal TJ FC Pencin · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Pěnčín vs Turnov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pěnčín and 1.51 for Turnov, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Pěnčín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pěnčín home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Turnov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pěnčín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Pěnčín and 1.51 for Turnov, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Pěnčín
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Diepenbeek · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-08-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Velké Hamry · 2-2 (D)
Turnov
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.