AJ Kelly Park · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Peninsula Power and 1.68 for Brisbane City, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Peninsula Power the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peninsula Power home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Brisbane City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Peninsula Power
- 2026-08-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
Brisbane City
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peninsula Power · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gold Coast United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T09:30:00.000Z · A vs WDSC Wolves · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochedale Rovers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-12T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast Knights · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 2-2 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2026-05-08T09:15:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 4-1 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2025-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 1-0 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2025-05-03T08:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 1-2 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2024-08-04T06:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 1-0 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2024-04-28T05:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 4-2 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2023-06-10T08:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 1-1 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2023-03-04T08:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 0-2 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2022-05-28T05:00:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 2-2 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
- 2022-04-27T09:30:00.000Z · Peninsula Power 5-0 Brisbane City (Queensland NPL)
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -26 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | -20 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.