· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Pennarossa vs Murata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Pennarossa and 2.01 for Murata, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Pennarossa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pennarossa win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pennarossa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Murata away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–26.0%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Pennarossa
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cosmos · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cailungo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tre Fiori · 2-5 (L)
Murata
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Folgore · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-08T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Tre Fiori · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T17:15:00.000Z · Pennarossa 2-0 Murata (Campionato)
- 2025-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 2-1 Murata (Campionato)
- 2025-01-19T14:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 0-4 Murata (Campionato)
- 2024-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 0-3 Murata (Campionato)
- 2024-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 0-3 Murata (Campionato)
- 2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 0-5 Murata (Campionato)
- 2023-01-28T17:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 2-3 Murata (Campionato)
- 2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 4-2 Murata (Campionato)
- 2022-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · Pennarossa 2-1 Murata (Campionato)
- 2022-05-03T18:45:00.000Z · Pennarossa 1-1 Murata (Campionato)
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pennarossa win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.