· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Penrhyncoch vs Caersws Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Penrhyncoch and 2.91 for Caersws, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Caersws the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Caersws win
78.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 2.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penrhyncoch home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caersws away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caersws to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 8% / 13% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Penrhyncoch and 2.91 for Caersws, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.6%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.8%
Recent form
Penrhyncoch
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ruthin Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bala Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bangor City 1876 FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Buckley Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Guilsfield · 0-4 (L)
Caersws
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bala Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanuwchllyn · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brickfield Rangers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ruthin Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caersws win, at 78.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.