· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Penuel vs SC Poltava 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Penuel and 1.44 for SC Poltava 2, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives SC Poltava 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SC Poltava 2 win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penuel home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Poltava 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Penuel and 1.44 for SC Poltava 2, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.0%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.7%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
Penuel
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trostianets · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria II · 0-3 (L)
SC Poltava 2
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbon Cherkasy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlet · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trostianets · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 8 | Oleksandria II | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Penuel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Poltava 2 win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.