· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Penya Encarnada vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Penya Encarnada and 1.65 for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Atlètic Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penya Encarnada home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Penya Encarnada
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Esperança d'Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa de Portugal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-4 (L)
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Esperança d'Andorra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa de Portugal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 1-1 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-12-14T18:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-11-01T18:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2025-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-1 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-12-15T15:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 1-6 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-0 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2024-04-07T16:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 1-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2023-12-17T12:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-3 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
- 2023-11-04T19:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 1-1 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Ordino | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.