· Analysis updated 10:33 UTC
Penya Encarnada vs FC Santa Coloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Penya Encarnada and 1.80 for FC Santa Coloma, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Santa Coloma win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penya Encarnada home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Santa Coloma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Penya Encarnada
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 1-2 (L)
FC Santa Coloma
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-4 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2026-03-21T18:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-6 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-02-02T12:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 1-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-04-21T09:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 2-4 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-01-21T12:30:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 0-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-01-14T14:00:00.000Z · Penya Encarnada 2-2 FC Santa Coloma (Copa Constitució)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santa Coloma win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.