· Analysis updated 05:02 UTC
Penya Encarnada vs UE Santa Coloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Penya Encarnada and 1.43 for UE Santa Coloma, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives UE Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UE Santa Coloma win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penya Encarnada home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UE Santa Coloma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UE Santa Coloma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 17% / 27% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Penya Encarnada and 1.43 for UE Santa Coloma, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–212.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Penya Encarnada
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carroi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranger's · 1-2 (L)
UE Santa Coloma
- 2026-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Penya Encarnada · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Ordino | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UE Santa Coloma win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.