Bryntirion Park · Referee J. Walker · Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Penybont vs Airbus UK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Penybont and 1.20 for Airbus UK, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Penybont the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Penybont win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Penybont home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Airbus UK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Penybont to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Penybont and 1.20 for Airbus UK, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Penybont
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Afan Lido · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barry Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ammanford AFC · 5-1 (W)
Airbus UK
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Penybont win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.