Penybont vs The New Saints Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Penybont and 1.91 for The New Saints, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives The New Saints the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

The New Saints win

60.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Penybont home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
The New Saints away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates The New Saints to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 18% / 22% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Penybont and 1.91 for The New Saints, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Penybont win18%

Draw22%

The New Saints win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–111.1%
0–210.6%
1–110.4%
1–29.9%
0–36.7%

Recent form

Penybont

2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Afan Lido · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barry Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ammanford AFC · 5-1 (W)

The New Saints

2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ammanford AFC · 9-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Holywell · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Trefelin · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	14	13	1	0	47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	11	1	2	23	34
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	9	2	3	24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	8	2	4	7	26
6	Barry Town	14	8	1	5	3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	8	0	6	8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	6	4	4	8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	5	3	6	-13	18
10	Llandudno	14	5	1	8	-3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	4	1	9	-9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	3	3	8	-12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	3	2	9	-11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	2	3	9	-31	9
15	Trefelin	14	1	3	10	-25	6
16	Holywell	13	0	2	11	-30	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is The New Saints win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.