· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Peralada and 0.79 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Peralada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peralada win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peralada home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlètic Lleida away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peralada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Peralada and 0.79 for Atlètic Lleida, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.2%
Recent form
Peralada
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilanova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Cristóbal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montañesa · 5-0 (W)
Atlètic Lleida
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-06T10:00:00.000Z · Peralada 0-0 Atlètic Lleida (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-11-24T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 1-3 Atlètic Lleida (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Badalona | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Europa II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Grama | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | L'Hospitalet | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Cornellà | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | L'Escala | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Peralada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Martinenc | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Atlètic Lleida | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Tona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peralada win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.