Peralada vs Pobla Mafumet Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Peralada and 1.04 for Pobla Mafumet, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Peralada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Peralada home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pobla Mafumet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peralada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Peralada and 1.04 for Pobla Mafumet, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Peralada win42%

Draw28%

Pobla Mafumet win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.0%
1–012.5%
0–110.0%
0–09.6%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Peralada

2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs L'Hospitalet · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilanova · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)

Pobla Mafumet

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.