· Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Peralada vs Tona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Peralada and 0.83 for Tona, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Peralada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peralada win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peralada home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Peralada
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs L'Hospitalet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilanova · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tona · 0-1 (L)
Tona
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mollerussa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T10:45:00.000Z · Peralada 0-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-11-02T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 0-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-02-23T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 2-1 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-10-13T09:45:00.000Z · Peralada 0-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 2-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-10-07T14:30:00.000Z · Peralada 1-1 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-03-25T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 1-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2022-11-20T15:30:00.000Z · Peralada 5-2 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 4 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Vilanova | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peralada win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.