· Referee B. Cruz · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Perez Zeledon vs San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Perez Zeledon and 1.34 for San Carlos, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives San Carlos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Carlos win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perez Zeledon home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Carlos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Carlos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 28% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Perez Zeledon and 1.34 for San Carlos, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Perez Zeledon
- 2026-10-18T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Escorpiones Belén · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter San Carlos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · H vs San Carlos · 0-2 (L)
San Carlos
- 2026-10-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Herediano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Carlos win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.