Pérolas Negras vs Santa Cruz RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.90 expected goals for Pérolas Negras and 0.81 for Santa Cruz RJ, a combined total of 4.71. That distribution gives Pérolas Negras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pérolas Negras win

89.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.90 – 0.81

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pérolas Negras home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pérolas Negras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.90 goals for Pérolas Negras and 0.81 for Santa Cruz RJ, a combined 4.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 54%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Pérolas Negras win89%

Draw7%

Santa Cruz RJ win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

93%

Double chance X2

11%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

3–08.9%
4–08.6%
3–17.2%
4–17.0%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Pérolas Negras

2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-27T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 5-1 (W)

Santa Cruz RJ

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa Rio table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boavista SC	8	5	2	1	11	17
2	Sampaio Corrêa RJ	8	5	2	1	5	17
3	Nova Iguaçu	8	3	3	2	1	12
4	Olaria	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	São Gonçalo EC RJ	6	2	3	1	1	9
6	Madureira	8	1	5	2	-3	8
7	Pérolas Negras	4	2	1	1	6	7
8	América RJ	4	2	1	1	5	7
9	CFRJ / Maricá	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Resende	4	2	0	2	6	6
11	Bonsucesso	4	1	3	0	2	6
12	Americano Campos	4	1	2	1	0	5
13	Portuguesa RJ	4	1	2	1	0	5
14	São Cristóvão RJ	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	CEAC / Araruama	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Serrano RJ	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Macaé	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Volta Redonda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bangu	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Cabofriense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Duque de Caxias	2	0	0	2	-6	0
22	Goytacaz	2	0	0	2	-6	0
23	SE Belford Roxo	2	0	0	2	-9	0
24	Santa Cruz RJ	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pérolas Negras win, at 89.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.