Persebaya Surabaya vs Garudayaksa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.50 for Garudayaksa, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Persebaya Surabaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persebaya Surabaya win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persebaya Surabaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Garudayaksa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persebaya Surabaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 30% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.50 for Garudayaksa, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Persebaya Surabaya win55%

Draw30%

Garudayaksa win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–021.7%
0–017.4%
2–013.6%
1–110.9%
0–18.7%

Recent form

Persebaya Surabaya

2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)

Garudayaksa

2026-10-21T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	0	6
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persebaya Surabaya win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.