Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium · Referee Y. Supriyanto · Analysis updated 09:10 UTC
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.23 for Persepam Madura Utd, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Persebaya Surabaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persebaya Surabaya win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persebaya Surabaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persepam Madura Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Persebaya Surabaya
- 2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)
Persepam Madura Utd
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T12:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2026-01-03T12:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2025-04-20T12:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2024-12-02T12:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2024-03-13T13:30:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2023-09-17T08:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 0-3 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2023-01-29T09:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 2-0 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2022-08-14T09:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 2-2 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2022-02-28T13:30:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
- 2021-11-20T11:15:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persebaya Surabaya win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.