Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium · Analysis updated 21:50 UTC
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSMS Medan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.58 for PSMS Medan, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Persebaya Surabaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persebaya Surabaya win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persebaya Surabaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PSMS Medan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persebaya Surabaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 21% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.58 for PSMS Medan, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.0%
- 2–015.2%
- 3–09.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Persebaya Surabaya
- 2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)
PSMS Medan
- 2026-08-01T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Persiraja Banda Aceh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adhyaksa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Piala Presiden table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Persija | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Port FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persebaya Surabaya win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.