Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium · Referee Y. Yamamoto · Analysis updated 18:14 UTC
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.88 for PSS Sleman, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Persebaya Surabaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persebaya Surabaya win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persebaya Surabaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PSS Sleman away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Persebaya Surabaya
- 2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)
PSS Sleman
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-11T08:30:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-3 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2024-08-11T12:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2024-03-03T08:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2023-08-26T08:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2023-02-13T08:00:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 4-2 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2022-08-27T13:30:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2022-01-29T11:15:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
- 2021-09-29T13:45:00.000Z · Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 PSS Sleman (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persebaya Surabaya win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.