Stadion Surajaya · Analysis updated 23:25 UTC
Persela Lamongan vs PSBS Biak Numfor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Persela Lamongan and 0.49 for PSBS Biak Numfor, a combined total of 4.99. That distribution gives Persela Lamongan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persela Lamongan win
95.6% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persela Lamongan home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PSBS Biak Numfor away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persela Lamongan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Persela Lamongan and 0.49 for PSBS Biak Numfor, a combined 4.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
5%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–011.7%
- 5–010.5%
- 3–010.4%
- 6–07.9%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Persela Lamongan
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs RANS Nusantara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Deltras · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Barito Putera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSBS Biak Numfor · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persiba Balikpapan · 1-0 (W)
PSBS Biak Numfor
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persipura Jayapura · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tornado Pekanbaru · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RANS Nusantara · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persela Lamongan · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persis Solo · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persela Lamongan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Deltras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | PSMS Medan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | PSPS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Persikad Depok FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | RANS Nusantara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Semen Padang | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | PSGC Ciamis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Persipura Jayapura | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Persis Solo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Barito Putera | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dejan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sumsel United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Persiku Kudus | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persela Lamongan win, at 95.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.