Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Persepam Madura Utd and 2.00 for Bali United, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Bali United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bali United win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persepam Madura Utd home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bali United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bali United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 26% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Persepam Madura Utd and 2.00 for Bali United, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persepam Madura Utd win26%

Draw22%

Bali United win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.5%
1–29.5%
0–17.0%
0–27.0%
2–16.4%

Recent form

Persepam Madura Utd

2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-0 (W)

Bali United

2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bali United win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.