Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium · Referee Y. Supriyanto · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC
Persepam Madura Utd vs Persijap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Persepam Madura Utd and 0.70 for Persijap, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Persepam Madura Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persepam Madura Utd win
74.6% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persepam Madura Utd home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persijap away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persepam Madura Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Persepam Madura Utd and 0.70 for Persijap, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 3–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
Persepam Madura Utd
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Semen Padang · 1-0 (W)
Persijap
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pusamania Borneo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persepam Madura Utd win, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.