Persepolis FC vs Malavan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Persepolis FC and 0.55 for Malavan, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Persepolis FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persepolis FC win

77.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.30 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persepolis FC home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Malavan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persepolis FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Persepolis FC and 0.55 for Malavan, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persepolis FC win77%

Draw16%

Malavan win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

2–015.3%
1–013.3%
3–011.8%
2–18.4%
1–17.3%

Recent form

Persepolis FC

2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Malavan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tractor Sazi · 0-1 (L)

Malavan

2026-09-07T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Persepolis FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fajr Sepasi · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persepolis FC	9	6	2	1	14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	5	5	0	9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	4	4	1	4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	3	5	2	2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	4	1	5	1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Paykan	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Malavan	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	1	5	4	-4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	0	5	4	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persepolis FC win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.