Gelora Bandung Lautan Api Stadium · Analysis updated 11:41 UTC
Persib Bandung vs Dewa United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Persib Bandung and 0.82 for Dewa United, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Persib Bandung the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persib Bandung win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persib Bandung home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dewa United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 56.2% vs market 44.0%, edge +12.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.0% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +12.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 53.9% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 25.8% | 3.88 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 20.4% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 43.8% | 2.28 | -12.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Persib Bandung
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 3-1 (W)
Dewa United
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persik Kediri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-20T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 2-2 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2025-11-21T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 1-0 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2025-07-08T12:30:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 1-1 Dewa United (Piala Presiden)
- 2025-01-17T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 0-2 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2024-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 2-2 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2023-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 5-1 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2023-07-14T12:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 2-2 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2023-03-20T08:00:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 2-1 Dewa United (Liga 1)
- 2022-12-14T13:15:00.000Z · Persib Bandung 1-1 Dewa United (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persib Bandung win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.