Gelora Bandung Lautan Api Stadium · Referee Y. Yamamoto · Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Persib Bandung vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Persib Bandung and 0.69 for PSIM Yogyakarta, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Persib Bandung the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persib Bandung win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persib Bandung home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PSIM Yogyakarta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persib Bandung to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Persib Bandung and 0.69 for PSIM Yogyakarta, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Persib Bandung
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 2-2 (D)
PSIM Yogyakarta
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSM Makassar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Persib Bandung | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Persepam Madura Utd | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Persebaya Surabaya | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Persik Kediri | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Arema FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persib Bandung win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.