· Analysis updated 07:34 UTC
Persija vs Arema FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Persija and 1.19 for Arema FC, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Persija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persija home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arema FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Persija and 1.19 for Arema FC, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Persija
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 2-1 (W)
Arema FC
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Piala Presiden table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Persija | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Port FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.