Persija vs Java United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Persija and 1.06 for Java United, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Persija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persija win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persija home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Java United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Persija and 1.06 for Java United, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persija win58%

Draw22%

Java United win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.9%
1–09.6%
2–09.4%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Persija

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 1-0 (W)

Java United

2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Pusamania Borneo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Persija	5	4	0	1	6	12
3	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
4	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Persepam Madura Utd	5	3	1	1	3	10
6	Persib Bandung	5	3	1	1	3	10
7	Bali United	5	3	0	2	7	9
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	2	3	0	2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	2	1	2	2	7
10	Arema FC	5	1	3	1	2	6
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	0	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Garudayaksa	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persija win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.