Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Persija and 0.70 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Persija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Persija win

45.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persija home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persebaya Surabaya away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Persija and 0.70 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Persija win46%

Draw32%

Persebaya Surabaya win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.1%
0–016.1%
1–112.7%
0–111.3%
2–010.2%

Recent form

Persija

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persib Bandung · 2-1 (W)

Persebaya Surabaya

2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · Persija 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya (Piala Presiden)
2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · Persija 3-0 Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1)
2025-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · Persija 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1)

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persija win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.