Gelora Bumi Kartini Stadium · Referee M. Iqballuddin · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Persijap vs Pusamania Borneo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Persijap and 1.38 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Pusamania Borneo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pusamania Borneo win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persijap home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pusamania Borneo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pusamania Borneo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 28% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Persijap and 1.38 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–09.2%
Recent form
Persijap
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pusamania Borneo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)
Pusamania Borneo
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Persija | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Persepam Madura Utd | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Persib Bandung | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bali United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Persebaya Surabaya | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Persik Kediri | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Arema FC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Java United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Garudayaksa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | PSM Makassar | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Persijap | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pusamania Borneo win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.