Persik Kediri vs Arema FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Persik Kediri and 1.26 for Arema FC, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Persik Kediri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persik Kediri win

49.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persik Kediri home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arema FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persik Kediri to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Persik Kediri and 1.26 for Arema FC, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persik Kediri win50%

Draw23%

Arema FC win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.5%
1–08.6%
2–07.6%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Persik Kediri

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Arema FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)

Arema FC

2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Bali United	7	4	1	2	12	13
4	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Persib Bandung	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Persita	6	3	3	0	3	12
7	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
8	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Arema FC	7	2	3	2	2	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persik Kediri win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.