Persik Kediri vs Pusamania Borneo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Persik Kediri and 1.88 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Pusamania Borneo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pusamania Borneo win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persik Kediri home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pusamania Borneo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pusamania Borneo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Persik Kediri and 1.88 for Pusamania Borneo, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persik Kediri win22%

Draw23%

Pusamania Borneo win56%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.9%
0–19.6%
0–29.0%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Persik Kediri

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Arema FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Garudayaksa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)

Pusamania Borneo

2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Dewa United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 7-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pusamania Borneo win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.