Harapan Bangsa Stadium · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Persiraja Banda Aceh vs Garudayaksa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Persiraja Banda Aceh and 1.30 for Garudayaksa, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Persiraja Banda Aceh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persiraja Banda Aceh win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persiraja Banda Aceh home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Garudayaksa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persiraja Banda Aceh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Persiraja Banda Aceh and 1.30 for Garudayaksa, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Persiraja Banda Aceh
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Semen Padang · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T09:15:00.000Z · H vs PSMS Medan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persekat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 3-4 (L)
Garudayaksa
- 2026-10-21T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persela Lamongan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Deltras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | PSMS Medan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | PSPS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Persikad Depok FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | RANS Nusantara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Semen Padang | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | PSGC Ciamis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Persipura Jayapura | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Persis Solo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Barito Putera | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dejan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sumsel United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Persiku Kudus | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persiraja Banda Aceh win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.