Utama Sport Center Kelapa Dua · Referee Y. Yamamoto · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Persita vs Bali United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Persita and 1.80 for Bali United, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Persita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persita home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bali United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Persita
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Persis Solo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 1-1 (D)
Bali United
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Persib Bandung · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T08:30:00.000Z · Persita 0-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-0 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2025-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · Persita 1-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2024-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2024-04-30T08:00:00.000Z · Persita 4-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2023-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-3 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2023-03-07T10:00:00.000Z · Persita 1-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2022-12-05T11:30:00.000Z · Persita 2-3 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2022-01-17T11:15:00.000Z · Persita 0-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2021-09-24T08:15:00.000Z · Persita 1-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Bali United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Persita | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Persebaya Surabaya | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bhayangkara FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | PSS Sleman | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Java United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 15 | PSM Makassar | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Persijap | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 18 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | -2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.