Utama Sport Center Kelapa Dua · Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Persita vs Bali United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Persita and 1.93 for Bali United, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Persita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Persita home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bali United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Persita
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Persis Solo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 1-1 (D)
Bali United
- 2026-10-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persijap · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T08:30:00.000Z · Persita 0-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-0 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2025-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · Persita 1-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2024-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2024-04-30T08:00:00.000Z · Persita 4-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2023-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Persita 0-3 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2023-03-07T10:00:00.000Z · Persita 1-1 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2022-12-05T11:30:00.000Z · Persita 2-3 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2022-01-17T11:15:00.000Z · Persita 0-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
- 2021-09-24T08:15:00.000Z · Persita 1-2 Bali United (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Bali United | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Persita | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arema FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.