Persita vs Garudayaksa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Persita and 1.17 for Garudayaksa, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Persita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Persita win

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.47 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Persita home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Garudayaksa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Persita and 1.17 for Garudayaksa, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Persita win66%

Draw18%

Garudayaksa win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.4%
2–08.1%
3–17.7%
1–17.6%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Persita

2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Persis Solo · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 1-1 (D)

Garudayaksa

2026-10-21T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Arema FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Persita win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.