Sam Kerr Football Centre · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Perth Glory II vs Stirling Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Perth Glory II and 2.25 for Stirling Lions, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Stirling Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stirling Lions win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth Glory II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Perth Glory II
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremantle City · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Knights · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Dianella White Eagle · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 2-2 (D)
Stirling Lions
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Knights · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dianella White Eagle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Balcatta · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 1-1 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-03-14T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 4-2 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 1-3 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-03-22T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 4-1 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 2-5 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-05-25T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 0-1 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-07-22T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 2-3 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-05-20T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 0-3 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2022-07-01T11:30:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 0-1 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2022-04-09T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory II 3-0 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stirling Lions win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.