· Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Perth Glory and 1.33 for Adelaide United, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Perth Glory the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth Glory home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Adelaide United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Perth Glory
- 2026-10-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-1 (D)
Adelaide United
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wofoo Tai Po · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory 2-0 Adelaide United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-20T08:35:00.000Z · Perth Glory 0-4 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2025-12-20T10:45:00.000Z · Perth Glory 0-1 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2025-04-12T11:45:00.000Z · Perth Glory 4-1 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2024-11-29T08:35:00.000Z · Perth Glory 2-2 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2024-04-07T07:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory 2-4 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2024-02-09T08:45:00.000Z · Perth Glory 3-3 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2023-04-23T08:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory 4-4 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2023-01-02T08:45:00.000Z · Perth Glory 0-2 Adelaide United (A-League)
- 2022-10-30T04:00:00.000Z · Perth Glory 1-2 Adelaide United (A-League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.