RedStar Arena · Analysis updated 21:28 UTC
Perth RedStar vs Fremantle City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Perth RedStar and 1.58 for Fremantle City, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Fremantle City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth RedStar home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Fremantle City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fremantle City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Perth RedStar and 1.58 for Fremantle City, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Perth RedStar
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Armadale · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Balcatta · 0-0 (D)
Fremantle City
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Kingsway · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory II · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:40:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.