RedStar Arena · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Perth RedStar vs Perth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Perth RedStar and 1.65 for Perth, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Perth RedStar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth RedStar home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Perth away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.73 (model 58.0% vs market 53.6%, edge +4.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.73 | 53.6% | 58.0% | 1.72 | +4.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.6% | 38.5% | 2.60 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.75 | 33.7% | 34.7% | 2.88 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.38 | 37.7% | 38.5% | 2.60 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.62 | 35.5% | 36.0% | 2.78 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 61.1% | 61.5% | 1.63 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | 64.0% | 1.56 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.3% | 65.3% | 1.53 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 63.7% | 61.5% | 1.63 | -2.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.6% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -2.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.00 | 46.4% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -4.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Perth RedStar
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Armadale · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Balcatta · 0-0 (D)
Perth
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Kingsway · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth RedStar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth RedStar · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 2-5 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-05-22T11:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 1-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-07-19T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 2-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-04-26T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 0-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-01-24T12:30:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 0-2 Perth (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-24T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 4-5 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-06-01T10:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 4-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-06-10T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 3-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-03-18T07:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 1-1 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
- 2022-07-30T09:00:00.000Z · Perth RedStar 4-0 Perth (Western Australia NPL)
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.