Dorrien Gardens · Analysis updated 10:23 UTC
Perth vs Stirling Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Perth and 1.98 for Stirling Lions, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Stirling Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stirling Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Perth and 1.98 for Stirling Lions, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
Perth
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Kingsway · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth RedStar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Sorrento · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth RedStar · 5-2 (W)
Stirling Lions
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Knights · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dianella White Eagle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Balcatta · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.