· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Peru vs Bolivia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Peru and 1.00 for Bolivia, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Peru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peru win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peru home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Peru and 1.00 for Bolivia, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
Peru
- 2026-10-06T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
Bolivia
- 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-01T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-21T20:30:00.000Z · Peru 2-0 Bolivia (Friendlies)
- 2025-03-21T01:30:00.000Z · Peru 3-1 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2023-11-16T20:00:00.000Z · Peru 0-2 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2022-11-20T00:30:00.000Z · Peru 1-0 Bolivia (Friendlies)
- 2021-11-12T02:00:00.000Z · Peru 3-0 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2021-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · Peru 0-1 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2019-06-18T21:30:00.000Z · Peru 3-1 Bolivia (Copa America)
- 2017-09-01T02:15:00.000Z · Peru 2-1 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2016-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · Peru 0-2 Bolivia (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2015-06-25T23:30:00.000Z · Peru 3-1 Bolivia (Copa America)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peru win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.