· Referee H. Gomez · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC
Peru vs Spain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Peru and 1.58 for Spain, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Spain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spain win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peru home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Spain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Peru and 1.58 for Spain, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Peru
- 2026-10-06T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Canada · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
Spain
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spain win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.